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BEIJING: Ten years after toasting a budding friendship with vodka and cake, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet again in Beijing this week seeking to further deepen the 鈥渘o-limits鈥� partnership between their two countries.
The two presidents share a strong personal bond, with Xi calling his Russian counterpart his 鈥渂est friend鈥� and Putin cherishing his 鈥渞eliable partner.鈥�
Their relationship has been a constant despite a decade of increasingly difficult relations with Western countries 鈥� exemplified by Russia鈥檚 ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which China has refused to condemn.
Putin鈥檚 attendance at a leaders forum in the Chinese capital this week is not only a rare foreign trip for the Russian leader, but also an opportunity to pay homage to Xi鈥檚 signature Belt and Road infrastructure initiative.
鈥�(The) Russian delegation鈥檚 presence in Beijing is important for Moscow,鈥� said Alicja Bachulska, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
鈥淚t will legitimize Russia in the international arena by creating a positive image of Putin not being completely isolated in the context of war,鈥� she told AFP.
Xi and Putin forged their friendship when the pair shared cake and vodka shots to mark the Russian leader鈥檚 birthday at a summit in Indonesia in 2013.
They have since drawn closer, with Xi whisking Putin away on a high-speed train ride across China to make traditional steamed buns in 2018.
Putin later returned the favor with caviar-topped pancakes and a river cruise on Xi鈥檚 subsequent visits to Russia.
In 2019, the Russian leader even threw Xi a birthday bash of his own, surprising him with ice cream at a conference in Tajikistan.
The two men鈥檚 lives share several similarities 鈥� they were born just a few months apart in the early 1950s and have both fathered daughters.
They are products of two socialist giants, with Xi the scion of a family of Communist revolutionaries and Putin a former Soviet intelligence officer.
Both are haunted by the collapse of the USSR 鈥� for Putin, a 鈥渕ajor geopolitical disaster鈥� and for Xi, a cautionary tale for China鈥檚 own Communist Party.
And both have invoked themes of national revitalization while suppressing dissent during their long and increasingly unchallenged years in power.
Mirroring their leaders鈥� ties, Beijing and Moscow have also huddled closer in recent years, viewing each other as a counterbalance against the US-led West.
The two countries describe their relationship as a 鈥渃omprehensive strategic partnership鈥� that has 鈥渘o limits鈥� on potential cooperation.
Their amity has endured despite Russia鈥檚 frontal assault on Ukraine since last year, thrusting Moscow and Putin into international isolation.
Beijing has resisted calls to condemn the invasion and depicted itself as a neutral party, stopping short of providing weapons for Moscow.
But it has echoed Russia in blaming Western countries 鈥� especially the NATO defense alliance 鈥� for creating the conditions for the war鈥檚 outbreak.
Joe Webster, an expert on China-Russia relations at the Atlantic Council, described Beijing鈥檚 stance on the war as 鈥減ro-Russia neutrality.鈥�
That has involved crucial diplomatic, economic and non-lethal military assistance for Moscow against a background of booming bilateral trade, he said.
But he added that the aborted mutiny by Russian mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin this summer 鈥渟hocked Beijing and led it to recalibrate relations with Moscow.鈥�
The threat of Putin鈥檚 ouster means 鈥淏eijing (now) seeks to depersonalize the relationship and institutionalize ties between the two political systems... to ensure close ties with Russia regardless of who occupies the power vertical,鈥� Webster said.
The subtle shift in rhetoric illuminates the lopsided nature of the China-Russia relationship 鈥� one that sees Moscow increasingly relying on its neighbor to prop up its economy and help sustain its war machine.
鈥淪ince Moscow embarked on its all-out invasion of Ukraine, it has been put in a position where it is unprecedentedly dependent on China,鈥� said Bjorn Alexander Duben, an international relations scholar at China鈥檚 Jilin University.
鈥�(Russia鈥檚) continued economic engagement with China is gradually turning into a relationship of direct dependence 鈥� raising the question whether Russia is steering toward a client relationship with Beijing,鈥� he said.
Analysts said that Putin鈥檚 sojourn in the Chinese capital was more focused on shoring up political support than securing big-ticket deals like the much-touted Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline.
鈥淲e might see results in the coming (months and) years with infrastructure projects being realized, but I don鈥檛 expect any kind of significant big deliverables this time,鈥� said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
鈥淐hina holds all of these cards. Russia would desperately want to have an announced deal, but China has leverage and can dictate the pace,鈥� he said.